2050 Carbon Neutrality, Our Last Chance for Future Survival

- Two draft ‘2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios’ with zero(0) net domestic emissions are presented
- Significantly enhanced the 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (2030 NDC) to 40% compared to the 2018 level
- A total of 100 meetings were held to collect opinions from all different sectors

□ The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Commission (Co-Chairpersons Kim Bu-kyum, Prime Minister, Yun Sun-Jin, Professor at Seoul National University) held the second Plenary Meeting on the afternoon of October 18 (Mon) at Nodeul Island* in Seoul.
* Urban forests constitute an important carbon sinks, and 30.3% of the facility energy is renewable (geothermal heat).

○ Today's meeting was attended by Co-Chairpersons Kim Bu-kyum and Yun Sun-Jin, 18 members from the Government sector, and 51 members from the private sector, who reviewed and determined the 「2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios」and the enhanced the 「2030 Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC)」.

○ The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Commission has organized and operated the General Planning Commission, 8 Sub-Commissions* and expert Commissions** for an in-depth review of related agendas and efficient discussion on various areas.
* ▴Climate change ▴Energy innovation ▴Economic industry ▴Green life ▴Just Transition ▴Science and technology ▴International cooperation ▴Citizens’ participation
** Organized and operated with a pool of experts in various fields through recommendations from relevant Ministries and stakeholders

- More than 20 meetings have been held in total, including creating 'Consultation Bodies' for industry, labor, civil society, youths, and local governments that can directly listen to the voices of each region and sector, as well as collecting the opinions of the citizens through the Citizen’s Council for Carbon Neutrality and on-line discussion forums.

◈ 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios

□ The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios forecast the future of Korea and transition details by sector, when carbon neutrality is realized in 2050. The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios will serve as a basis to determine policy directions and transition speed by sector, such as energy transformation and industry.

○ Three Scenarios were proposed in August of this year, and two were deliberated and confirmed through a rigorous review process.

○ Accordingly, the 2050 Carbon Neutrality Commission proposed two drafts to the Government to achieve carbon neutrality (net-zero) through domestic emissions reduction.

□ This Scenario plans contain the content that coal-fired power generation should be terminated* in order to minimize the carbon emissions required for electricity and heat production.

* The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Commission recommends preparing a legal basis and an appropriate compensation plan for this purpose.

○ In the industry sector, the Commission proposed the introduction of a hydrogen-reduced steel-making method in the steel production process, as well as to transition from fossil fuels and raw materials used in cement, petroleum, chemical, and refining processes to renewable alternatives.

○ In the building/transportation sector, improving the energy efficiency of buildings (zero-energy buildings, green remodeling, etc.), increasing the supply of pollution-free vehicles to at least 85%, expanding the use of public transportation and personal mobility, and converting to eco-friendly shipping were the main points.

○ In the agricultural, livestock and fishery sector, the Scenarios suggests the minimization of greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions in agricultural land and fisheries sites by reducing the use of chemical fertilizers, improving farming methods, and supplying low-carbon and non-carbon fishing boats, as well as managing carbon emissions from livestock through the circulation of livestock manure.

○ Additionally, the initiative proposed that 2050 carbon neutrality goal can be achieved through waste reduction, the expansion of the use of electrolyzed hydrogen (green hydrogen) as a clean energy source, creation and conservation of sinks such as forests, oceans, and rivers, and commercialization of carbon dioxide capture, storage and utilization (CCUS) technology.

◈ 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (2030 NDC)

□ As for the enhanced 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions(2030 NDC): the 2050 Carbon Neutrality Commission reviewed and decided to significantly increase from the existing 26.3% reduction to reduce the total amount of GHG emissions by 40% compared to 2018, and proposed this enhanced 2030 NDC　to the Government.

○ Considering Korea's industrial structure*, its relatively short time span from emissions peak to the carbon neutrality target year**, and higher average annual reduction rates*** compared to major countries, a 40% goal is by no means trivial. Therefore, the government's efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and reduce GHG emissions reflect a strong will to achieve these goals through policy and cooperation.
* Ratio of manufacturing to total GDP (as of 2020, %): (Korea) 26.1, (Japan) 19.5, (EU) 14.0, (US) 10.6
** Period of time from emission peak to carbon neutrality target year (years): (Korea) 32, (Japan) 37, (US) 43, (EU) 60
*** Average annual reduction rate (base year → target year, %/year): (Korea) 4.17, (Japan) 3.56, (US · UK) 2.81, (EU) 1.98

□ The following are the key elements of the 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions(2030 NDC) :

○ In the energy transformation(electricity and heat production) sector, the termination of coal-fired power generation was included, and the expansion of new and renewable energy is projected to reduce emissions by 44.4% from 269.6 million tons in 2018 to 149.9 million tons by 2030.

○ In the industry sector, the Scenarios indicated a reduction of 14.5% from 260.5 million tons in 2018 to 222.6 million tons by 2030 through the transformation of the steel production process, as well as the conversion of petrochemical raw material, and cement lead/raw material.

○ In the building sector, the Scenarios suggest a reduction of 32.8% from 52.1 million tons in 2018 to 35.0 million tons by 2030 by promoting the construction of zero-energy buildings, distributing energy-efficient devices, and implementing smart energy management.

○ In the transportation sector, the Scenarios propose a 37.8% reduction from 98.1 million tons in 2018 to 61.0 million tons by 2030 by expanding the supply of eco-friendly vehicles and increasing the bio-diesel blending ratio. 

○ In the livestock and fishery sector, the Scenarios suggest a reduction of 27.1% from 24.7 million tons in 2018 to 18.0 million tons by 2030 through the improvement of irrigation methods, reduction of fertilizer use, expansion of low-methane feed supply, and nitrogen reduction of livestock manure.

○ Additionally, the Scenarios contain measures to absorb 26.7 million tons by 2030 through sustainable forest management, sea forests and urban green areas, and the introduction of CCUS technology and implementation of overseas reduction projects.

◈ Prime Minister's message, etc.

□ During the review and endorsing process of the Plenary Meeting, Prime Minister Kim Bu-kyum indicated that “Carbon neutrality is a difficult task that entails structural transformation in all sectors of our economy and society, but it is an unavoidable and necessary path to overcome the climate crisis.”

○ “This is an innovative opportunity to upgrade our carbon-emitting industry and energy structure to a low-carbon economic system,” he said.

○ Prime Minister Kim emphasized that, “in the carbon-neutrality process, it will be possible to secure future new growth engines and create new jobs by nurturing promising industries such as the hydrogen economy and activating the circular economy.”

□ Prime Minister Kim also said that, “Planning is important to achieve carbon neutrality goals, but implementation is more important than anything else.”

○ “I hope that each Ministry will establish a specific roadmap and implementation plan with a determined willingness to achieve the carbon neutrality goals, and pay close attention to implementation.”

□ The agenda that was discussed and determined today will be finalized through the Cabinet Meeting next week (October 27th), and the newly enhanced 2030 NDC goal will be announced at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26*) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC*) to be held in Glasgow, UK in early November.

* It will be held in Glasgow, UK from October 31st to November 12th (COP stands for (UNFCCC) ‘Conference of the Parties’), COP1 was first held in 1995, and is held once every year, making this the 26th meeting).